Invading Iran?

Military analysts in Washington say that Bush may soon decide to bomb Iran. Apparently though, they think it would only be a "limited military action to destroy their WMD capabilities," not a full-scale invasion. The idea of a clean, in-and-out operation that ends quickly reminds me of the "Mission Accomplished" banner from May of 2003, which has been followed by three and a half years of continued military occupation with no end in sight.

No one knows how many have been killed in Iraq, and no one can know how many would be killed in Iran. One might draw hope from the idea that the Bush administration would learn from its mistakes in Iraq, and not invade Iran. Of course, one might have hoped that they would have learned from Afghanistan and not have invaded Iraq. One might have hoped that the American government would learn from Vietnam or Korea, and hesitate to invade countries in the guise of bringing democracy, but one hoping that would be disappointed.

Whether the motive is bringing democracy to the Middle East, bringing oil from the Middle East, or something else, the past has shown that it brings death to many. Estimates of civilian deaths in Iraq range from Iraq Body Count's minimum estimate of about 47,500 to The Lancet's (PDF) estimate of over 600,000. There have been no widely reported estimates of civilian deaths in Afghanistan, all that is really known is that it is many, in my opinion too many.

The past has also shown that "the mission", whatever it is exactly, cannot be done simply and easily. The "mission" in Iraq was declared "accomplished" in two months; nevertheless, is now well into its third year. The Independent once called the conflict in Afghanistan the "War With No End," as it, like Iraq, seems to have no end in sight. A "limited military operation" in Iran might be no different.

Fortunately, Bush will soon be subject to a Democratic congress. Unfortunately, many Democrats voted with Republicans to support the invasion of Iraq, and there is no guarantee that they will not do the same if it comes to Iran. Some say that Bush doesn't have the trust of the public which is necessary to invade another country, and, though this trust is of course not technically necessary to launch military operations, it is necessary for the Republican Party to win elections. It is my hope, though not necessarily my belief, that party politics will do some good for once and prevent an invasion.

If Bush does decide to invade Iran though, for whatever reasons, it will not be simple, it will not be short, and it will certainly not be bloodless.